Q1· lens: The stack
Are frontier model capabilities still improving fast, or has the curve bent?
Nearly every financial and infrastructure bet is an implicit forecast of this capability curve.
4 claims 3 stances 290 evidence
Q2
Can the physical build-out (power, chips, data centers) be delivered on the announced timeline?
The domain where constraints are most concrete and least about belief.
4 claims 3 stances 282 evidence
Q3
Do the unit economics of AI products actually work?
Conflates lab economics, app-layer economics, and customer ROI: different answers each.
9 claims 3 stances 757 evidence
Q4
Is the market mispriced, and if so, in which direction?
The most over-discussed question, and where domain confusion is worst.
4 claims 3 stances 329 evidence
Q5· lens: The stack
Where does durable competitive advantage settle, and does any layer earn outsized rents?
Under-discussed relative to importance; the whole valuation case depends on someone capturing durable margin.
4 claims 3 stances 405 evidence
Q6
Does the export-control / geopolitical regime constrain the trajectory, or get routed around?
A live variable, often mistreated as background.
4 claims 3 stances 532 evidence
Q7· lens: Employment
Is AI actually displacing knowledge work, and where does the impact land first?
The labor side of the debate: whether AI adoption is reducing knowledge-work employment (with entry-level roles as the leading edge), merely recomposing tasks and career ladders, or whether the macro cycle still drowns out any attributable signal.