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Claims & Theses
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Claim 1.4
i
Claim 1.4
Inference-time compute yields gains that don't saturate quickly on hard reasoning.
Capability
Slow to resolve
The stack
Map
Bridges
Concepts
Traceroute
◷ Share view, as of June 2026: confidence, rationales and priors are hidden. The questions, stances, claims, tests and evidence stay visible.
would falsify this claim
Reasoning-model gains plateau sharply with more inference compute on novel problems.
Evidence
17 support
1 contradict
7 neutral
Supports
· weight medium
· State of AI Report 2026 - FINAL (stateof.ai)
· via
State of AI Report 2026 benchmarks frontier labs, agent monetization, and safety incidents across 12 months
· Technical Capability
Contradicts
· weight medium
· OpenAI Shelves GPT-6.1 Astra Over Deception, Scope ... (labs.cloudsecurityalliance.org)
· via
OpenAI shelves GPT-6.1 Astra after internal alignment tests find deception and scope violations
· Technical Capability
Neutral
· weight medium
· Introducing Muse Spark 1.1 - AI at Meta (ai.meta.com)
· via
Meta launches Muse Spark 1.1, multimodal agentic model with 1M-token context and structured coding improvements
· Market & Valuation
Supports
· weight medium
· Introducing GPT‑5 for developers (openai.com)
· via
OpenAI releases GPT-5 API with agentic capabilities: 74.9% on SWE-bench Verified, native tool chaining for developers
· Technical Capability
Supports
· weight medium
· OpenAI releases o3-pro, a souped-up version of its o3 AI reasoning model - TechCrunch (techcrunch.com)
· via
OpenAI launches o3-pro reasoning model, outperforms Gemini 2.5 Pro on AIME and Claude 4 Opus on GPQA Diamond benchmarks
· Market & Valuation
Supports
· weight medium
· Introducing OpenAI o3 and o4-mini (openai.com)
· via
OpenAI releases o3 and o4-mini reasoning models with tool-integrated agentic capabilities
· Technical Capability
Supports
· weight medium
· Gemini 2.5: Our most intelligent AI model (blog.google)
· via
Google announces Gemini 2.5 Pro Experimental, ranks first on LMArena benchmark with extended reasoning capabilities
· Technical Capability
Neutral
· weight medium
· Introducing GPT-4.5 (openai.com)
· via
OpenAI releases GPT-4.5, a frontier model focused on scaling unsupervised learning with improvements in knowledge depth and user interaction quality
· Technical Capability
Supports
· weight medium
· Claude 3.7 Sonnet and Claude Code (anthropic.com)
· via
Anthropic releases Claude 3.7 Sonnet with integrated reasoning and extended thinking at flat pricing, achieving SOTA on SWE-bench and TAU-bench
· Technical Capability
Neutral
· weight medium
· Introducing Gemini 2.0: our new AI model for the agentic era (blog.google)
· via
Google releases Gemini 2.0 Flash with native multimodal output and tool-use capabilities, positioning for agentic applications
· Technical Capability
Supports
· weight medium
· Introducing ChatGPT Pro (openai.com)
· via
OpenAI launches ChatGPT Pro, $200/month tier with unlimited access to o1 and o1 pro mode (inference-time scaling)
· Market & Valuation
Neutral
· weight medium
· Introducing computer use, a new Claude 3.5 Sonnet, and ... (anthropic.com)
· via
Claude 3.5 Sonnet upgraded to 49.0% on SWE-bench Verified, computer use feature enters public beta
· Technical Capability
Supports
· weight medium
· Learning to reason with LLMs (openai.com)
· via
OpenAI o1-preview: reasoning benchmarks show sharp gains on AIME (74% vs 12%), GPQA (exceeding PhD accuracy), Codeforces (89th percentile)
· Technical Capability
Supports
· weight medium
· AI achieves silver-medal standard solving International ... (deepmind.google)
· via
DeepMind AlphaProof and AlphaGeometry 2 reach silver-medal standard on IMO 2024, solving 4 of 6 problems
· Technical Capability
Supports
· weight medium
· EXCLUSIVE: OpenAI working on new reasoning technology under code name ‘Strawberry’ | Reuters (reuters.com)
· via
OpenAI internal reasoning model scores over 90% on MATH benchmark, targeting multi-step research and engineering tasks
· Technical Capability
Neutral
· weight medium
· Scale AI Raises $1B In Accel-Led Round; Hits $13.8B Valuation (news.crunchbase.com)
· via
Scale AI raises $1B at $13.8B valuation; Nvidia, Amazon, Meta participate
· Market & Valuation
Supports
· weight medium
· AlphaGeometry: An Olympiad-level AI system for geometry (deepmind.google)
· via
DeepMind AlphaGeometry solves 25 of 30 IMO geometry problems at gold-medalist level, combining neuro-symbolic reasoning with 100M synthetic training examples
· Technical Capability
Supports
· weight medium
· Generative AI and Disinformation (bipartisanpolicy.org)
· via
Generative AI lowers barriers to large-scale disinformation production, reducing cost and operational complexity
· Technical Capability
Supports
· weight medium
· Research acceleration: The view inside OpenAI | OpenAI (openai.com)
· via
OpenAI reports research organization now runs 3.1 agent-workdays per human workday
· Technical Capability
Neutral
· weight medium
· Hot Chips 2026: Intel dives deep on Crescent Island AI ... (tomshardware.com)
· via
Intel details Crescent Island AI accelerator at Hot Chips 2026: 350W air-cooled PCIe card with LPDDR5X targets inference-first niche
· Market & Valuation
Supports
· weight medium
· NVIDIA CORP - Form ARS - FY2026 (sec.gov)
· via
NVIDIA FY2026 annual report: revenue $216B (+65% YoY), Data Center $194B (+68%), operating cash flow $103B, with $1T+ cumulative Blackwell/Rubin revenue visibility through 2027
· Market & Valuation
Neutral
· weight medium
· New method could increase LLM training efficiency (news.mit.edu)
· via
MIT researchers demonstrate 2x speedup in reasoning LLM training via adaptive speculative decoding
· Technical Capability
Supports
· weight medium
· International AI Safety Report 2026 (arxiv.org)
· via
International AI Safety Report 2026 documents capability gains, reliability gaps, and expanding but voluntary safety governance
· Technical Capability
Supports
· weight medium
· Memory Wall Bottleneck: AI Compute Sparks Memory Supercycle (trendforce.com)
· via
HBM and DDR5 demand surge drives memory supercycle; DRAM prices projected to rise 70%+ in 2026
· Market & Valuation
Supports
· weight medium
· The Price of Progress: Price Performance and the Future of AI (arxiv.org)
· via
Benchmark price-performance falling 5–10× per year, but frontier model inference costs rising 3–18× per year as compute demands grow
· Market & Valuation
Signals on the board
Oct 8, 2026
State of AI Report 2026 benchmarks frontier labs, agent monetization, and safety incidents across 12 months
Oct 1, 2026
OpenAI shelves GPT-6.1 Astra after internal alignment tests find deception and scope violations
Sep 3, 2026
OpenAI reports research organization now runs 3.1 agent-workdays per human workday
Aug 25, 2026
Intel details Crescent Island AI accelerator at Hot Chips 2026: 350W air-cooled PCIe card with LPDDR5X targets inference-first niche
Jul 9, 2026
Meta launches Muse Spark 1.1, multimodal agentic model with 1M-token context and structured coding improvements
Mar 23, 2026
Benchmark price-performance falling 5–10× per year, but frontier model inference costs rising 3–18× per year as compute demands grow
Feb 26, 2026
MIT researchers demonstrate 2x speedup in reasoning LLM training via adaptive speculative decoding
Feb 1, 2026
International AI Safety Report 2026 documents capability gains, reliability gaps, and expanding but voluntary safety governance
Jan 16, 2026
HBM and DDR5 demand surge drives memory supercycle; DRAM prices projected to rise 70%+ in 2026
Research bearing on this · advisory
2026-09-10
Beyond Confidence: Stability-Aware Test-Time Adaptation for LLM Reasoning
2026-09-10
Thinking with Looped Flows
2026-09-10
Ecdysis: Efficient and Effective Training of Runtime Harnesses for LLM Agents
2026-09-10
T1: Terminal Agent Reinforcement Learning for Long-Horizon Tasks
2026-09-09
Stable Answers, Unfinished Reasoning: Why Self-Consensus Is Not a Safe Early-Exit Signal
Bears on
supports
Q1-S1A
Scaling still works, the curve just moved.
contradicts
Q1-S1B
The economically useful curve has bent, even if benchmarks haven't.
depends_on
B3 · Training-efficiency gains will reduce aggregate compute demand (threatening "more compute = more value").
Jan 1, 2026
NVIDIA FY2026 annual report: revenue $216B (+65% YoY), Data Center $194B (+68%), operating cash flow $103B, with $1T+ cumulative Blackwell/Rubin revenue visibility through 2027
Aug 7, 2025
OpenAI releases GPT-5 API with agentic capabilities: 74.9% on SWE-bench Verified, native tool chaining for developers
Jun 10, 2025
OpenAI launches o3-pro reasoning model, outperforms Gemini 2.5 Pro on AIME and Claude 4 Opus on GPQA Diamond benchmarks
Apr 16, 2025
OpenAI releases o3 and o4-mini reasoning models with tool-integrated agentic capabilities
Mar 28, 2025
Google announces Gemini 2.5 Pro Experimental, ranks first on LMArena benchmark with extended reasoning capabilities
Feb 27, 2025
OpenAI releases GPT-4.5, a frontier model focused on scaling unsupervised learning with improvements in knowledge depth and user interaction quality
Feb 24, 2025
Anthropic releases Claude 3.7 Sonnet with integrated reasoning and extended thinking at flat pricing, achieving SOTA on SWE-bench and TAU-bench
Dec 11, 2024
Google releases Gemini 2.0 Flash with native multimodal output and tool-use capabilities, positioning for agentic applications
Dec 5, 2024
OpenAI launches ChatGPT Pro, $200/month tier with unlimited access to o1 and o1 pro mode (inference-time scaling)
Oct 22, 2024
Claude 3.5 Sonnet upgraded to 49.0% on SWE-bench Verified, computer use feature enters public beta
Sep 12, 2024
OpenAI o1-preview: reasoning benchmarks show sharp gains on AIME (74% vs 12%), GPQA (exceeding PhD accuracy), Codeforces (89th percentile)
Jul 25, 2024
DeepMind AlphaProof and AlphaGeometry 2 reach silver-medal standard on IMO 2024, solving 4 of 6 problems
Jul 15, 2024
OpenAI internal reasoning model scores over 90% on MATH benchmark, targeting multi-step research and engineering tasks
May 21, 2024
Scale AI raises $1B at $13.8B valuation; Nvidia, Amazon, Meta participate
Jan 17, 2024
DeepMind AlphaGeometry solves 25 of 30 IMO geometry problems at gold-medalist level, combining neuro-symbolic reasoning with 100M synthetic training examples
Aug 23, 2023
Generative AI lowers barriers to large-scale disinformation production, reducing cost and operational complexity
2026-09-09
Proof-Carrying Cognition: Closing the Verification Gap with Reality-Settled Reward