Goldman Sachs Research, using augmented hyperscaler capex methodology cross-checked against gross profit realizations, government data, and trade data, estimates total global AI-related investment will reach approximately $1 trillion in 2026, with US AI investment at $581 billion. The commonly cited $794 billion hyperscaler capex figure understates global AI investment by roughly $200 billion while simultaneously overstating US-located investment by a similar margin, as it excludes private companies and non-US firms but includes capex deployed outside the US. Leading indicators including semiconductor equipment imports, PMI components, and GPU rental prices all rank near the top of their range since 2022, suggesting no near-term slowdown. For financial institutions, the $1 trillion figure and its 2028 trajectory toward 2.8% of US GDP provide a macro-scale anchor for sizing AI infrastructure exposure across credit, equity, and project finance books.
379 other tracked developments touching the same claims.