On 14 January 2026, the US Commerce Department shifted from a "presumption of denial" to "case-by-case review" policy for NVIDIA H200 and AMD MI325X-equivalent chip exports to China, accompanied by a 25% tariff and 50% volume cap. Chinese firms have placed orders worth up to USD 14 billion for over 2 million H200 chips, potentially closing the compute gap between US and Chinese AI labs from a 10:1 ratio to a materially smaller one. This marks a reversal of US chip-export policy since 2022 and signals that technological competition with China now operates within bilateral trade-offs rather than unilateral restrictions, with implications for the durability and scope of export controls on AI infrastructure globally.
483 other tracked developments touching the same claims.