The San Francisco Federal Reserve surveyed nearly 750 corporate executives in April 2026 and found that AI has driven positive labor productivity gains, primarily through total factor productivity and revenue/demand channels rather than capital deepening. Sectoral effects vary, with largest productivity gains in high-skill services and finance. The survey documents a "productivity paradox" where perceived gains exceed measured gains, likely due to delayed revenue realization. For labor, the aggregate data show little near-term employment decline, but compositional shifts are visible: larger firms anticipate workforce reductions while smaller firms expect gains, and routine clerical roles are declining relative to increased demand for skilled technical positions. For financial institutions, this suggests AI productivity benefits are real and concentrated in their own sector, but headcount planning should differentiate by firm size and occupational mix.
312 other tracked developments touching the same claims.