California UI claims data show no statewide AI-driven displacement surge through May 2026, but elevated claims persist among college-educated and Bay Area tech workers

The California Policy Lab, in partnership with the state Employment Development Department, released the California AI-Unemployment Tracker (CAIT), linking UI claims data to occupational AI-exposure scores through May 2026. Statewide, the share of UI claims from high-AI-exposure occupations has not risen significantly above pre-pandemic levels, consistent with national CPS and Danish administrative data. However, college-educated workers in high-AI-exposure occupations saw claims rise over 50% between November 2022 and July 2023 and remain elevated into May 2026, with similar sustained elevation in the SF Bay Area and in Information and Professional Services industries. For financial institutions, the data provide the first near-real-time, administrative-record signal that AI-related labor displacement, while not yet broad-based, is concentrating in higher-wage, white-collar segments, which has implications for consumer credit quality and workforce composition modeling in tech-heavy geographies.