The Trump administration reversed its April 2025 ban on H20 chip exports to China in July 2025, subsequently approving H200 sales (December 2025) and establishing a 15% revenue-sharing fee on China chip sales paid to the US Treasury, an unprecedented mechanism. By May 2026, roughly 10 Chinese firms including Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance have Commerce clearance to buy H200s (up to 75,000 units each), though deliveries remain in legal limbo. The rapid policy oscillation, four material shifts in 13 months, demonstrates that Nvidia's China revenue (~13% of total) and China's AI compute access are now directly tied to executive-branch negotiating leverage over tariffs and rare-earth trade, creating persistent revenue uncertainty for US chipmakers. Financial institutions with exposure to Nvidia, AMD, or China-linked AI infrastructure should model China revenue as structurally volatile rather than recoverable to a stable baseline.
378 other tracked developments touching the same claims.