A Center for a New American Security report estimates that 10,000 to several hundred thousand advanced AI chips (primarily NVIDIA H100s and H20s) were smuggled to the People's Republic of China in 2024, with a median estimate of approximately 140,000 units. Evidence includes reported smuggling cases totaling hundreds of millions of dollars, Chinese marketplace listings suggesting 100,000+ H100 GPUs in inventory as of December 2024, and accounts from Chinese start-ups confirming straightforward access to export-controlled chips. If the median estimate holds, smuggled chips would represent 1-30 percent of PRC inference capacity (median 6%) and 1-40 percent of training capacity (median 10%) acquired in 2024. The report attributes the scale to under-resourcing of enforcement (BIS budget for export controls), minimal historical penalties, and weak due-diligence practices at chip firms and distributors.
304 other tracked developments touching the same claims.