A Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta working paper (March 2026) surveys nearly 750 corporate CFOs and finds that AI-attributed labor productivity gains averaged 1.8% in 2025 and are expected to reach 3.0% in 2026, with the largest gains concentrated in high-skill services and finance. A "productivity paradox" is documented: perceived gains substantially exceed revenue-based measured gains, consistent with delayed output realization. Aggregate AI-attributed employment is expected to decline by less than 0.4% in 2026, though large firms anticipate workforce reductions while small firms expect modest gains, and routine clerical roles are being displaced while demand for skilled-technical roles rises. For financial institutions, the finding that productivity gains are driven more by revenue-oriented and innovation channels than by cost reduction, combined with the measured-versus-perceived wedge, suggests enterprise ROI claims from AI adopters warrant scrutiny against recognized revenue rather than self-reported productivity improvements.
380 other tracked developments touching the same claims.